Just Explain It: Why the Fiscal Cliff May Trigger a Recession

Lawmakers in Washington appear to be making little to no progress in avoiding the impending so-called fiscal cliff.  House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Friday the negotiations are "almost nowhere." On Thursday Boehner rejected a proposal from the Obama administration saying that the Democrats need to "get serious about real spending cuts."
President Obama's offer continues to call for higher taxes on the wealthy and an extension of the payroll tax cut.   But Republicans say they will not agree to a plan that raises taxes.
As the country continues to head toward the fiscal cliff, this Just Explain It helps to make sense of what it is.
On December 31st, most of us would like to be thinking about a prosperous new year ahead…drinking bubbly and singing Auld Lang Syne with friends.  But there's a chance we could be singing a different tune if President Obama and Congress don't agree on measures to avoid the fiscal cliff.
First, let me explain what the fiscal cliff is.
The fiscal cliff refers to the potentially disastrous situation the U-S faces at the end of this year.  At midnight on December 31st, a number of laws are set to expire.  If the President and the Republicans don't reach an agreement before then, Americans could face broad government spending cuts and tax increases on January 1st.   The combined amount would total over 500 billion dollars. Those 500 billion dollars equal about three to four percent of the nation's entire gross domestic product.  This is what's referred to as the fiscal cliff.
If there isn't a resolution, here are the specifics of what will happen.
Taxes would go up for almost every taxpayer and many businesses. The Bush-era tax cuts, which tax relief for middle and upper-class tax payers, would be a thing of the past.  So would President Obama's payroll tax cut which added about a thousand dollars a year to the average worker's income.
Government spending would be slashed.  That means less money for most military, domestic and federal programs.  $26 billion in emergency unemployment-compensation would be gone. Medicare payments to doctors would be reduced by $11 billion. Federal programs would take the biggest hit.  They stand to lose a total of $65 billion.
If the fiscal cliff isn't avoided, some investors will be hit hard.  Those who receive qualified dividends could see the tax rate on those dividends go from 15% to almost 40% in 2013.
Many business owners believe going over the fiscal cliff will cripple the economy, triggering a deep recession.  They fear demand for their products or services will decrease because consumers will have less money to spend.  It also means that they won't be able to afford new hires or expand their businesses.   Since most Americans would be paying more in taxes, they'd be less inclined to make big purchases, like a home or a new car.
None of this is set in stone, but that's part of the problem.  Markets, businesses and people in general hate uncertainty. The fear of the unknown facing us at the beginning of next year is exactly why so many people are so worked up over the fiscal cliff.
Did you learn something? Do you have a topic you'd like explained?  Give us your feedback in the comments below or on twitter using #justexplainit.
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New purported BlackBerry Z10 specs emerge: 1.5GHz processor, 2GB RAM, 8MP camera

Another week, another batch of purported leaks for Research In Motion’s (RIMM) first BlackBerry 10-powered Z10. BBin claims to have most of the Z10′s final specs confirmed and it is shaping up to be a powerful device. Rumored specs for the Z10 include a TI OMAP 4470 1.5GHz dual-core processor (Qualcomm Snapdragon MSM8960 for the U.S. and Canada), a 4.2-inch display (1,280 x 768 resolution), quad-band LTE, 2GB of RAM, 16GB or 32GB of internal storage, an 8-megapixel rear camera with LED flash, a 2-megapixel front camera, a microSD card slot, and an 1,800 mAh removable battery. On the connectivity side, the Z10 is also rumored to have NFC, Bluetooth 4.0, dual-band 802.11 a/g/n Wi-Fi, A-GPS, a Micro USB port and a Micro HDMI-out port. BlackBerry 10′s January 30th unveiling in New York City can’t come soon enough.
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Apple still said to account for 87% of North American tablet traffic as Kindle Fire, Nexus 7 gain

Apple’s (AAPL) share of the global tablet market is in decline now that low-cost Android slates are proliferating, but the iPad still appears to be the most used tablet by a huge margin. Ad firm Chitika regularly monitors tablet traffic in the United States and Canada and in its latest report, Apple’s iPad was responsible for almost 90% of all tablet traffic across the company’s massive network.
[More from BGR: Samsung looks to address its biggest weakness in 2013]
Using a sample of tens of millions of impressions served to tablets between December 8th and December 14th this year, Chitika determined that various iPad models collectively accounted for 87% of tablet traffic in North America. That figure is down a point from the prior month but still represents a commanding lead in the space.
[More from BGR: New purported BlackBerry Z10 specs emerge: 1.5GHz processor, 2GB RAM, 8MP camera]
The next closest device line, Amazon’s (AMZN) Kindle Fire tablet family, had a 4.25% share of tablet traffic during that period, up from 3.57% in November. Samsung’s (005930) Galaxy tablets made up 2.65% of traffic, up from 2.36%, and Google’s (GOOG) Nexus 7 and Nexus 10 tablets combined to account for 1.06% of tablet traffic in early December.
“Despite these gains by some of the bigger players in the tablet marketplace, there has been a negligible impact to Apple’s dominant usage share,” Chitika wrote in a post on its blog.
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iOS apps see Christmas sales spike shrink in 2012

Distimo just released its statistics on Christmas Day app downloads and revenue growth… and the download spike is far smaller than it was last year. Back in 2011, Christmas Day iOS app download volume spiked 230% above the December average. This year, the increase was just 87% — far below industry expectations. The revenue spike came in at 70%.
[More from BGR: Google names 12 best Android apps of 2012]
Interestingly, iPad downloads increased by 140% this Christmas, implying that the iPhone download bounce was really modest.
[More from BGR: New purported BlackBerry Z10 specs emerge: 1.5GHz processor, 2GB RAM, 8MP camera]
A few weeks ago, AppAnnie released statistics showing that iOS app revenue growth had stalled over the summer of 2012, whereas Android app revenue growth was relatively strong at 48% over a five month period. Both Distimo and Appannie are respected companies and their analytics are closely followed by app industry professionals. Could it be that the pace of iPhone app revenue growth has slowed down sharply from 2011 levels, even if Distimo and AppAnnie numbers aren’t entirely accurate?
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Leaked BlackBerry 10 slides show video calling and screen sharing for BBM

Research in Motion (RIMM) recently updated its BlackBerry Messenger application to include free Wi-Fi calling. With the release of BlackBerry 10 just around the corner, RIM is looking to add even more features to its flagship messaging app. Slides from a purported internal BlackBerry 10 presentation that were originally posted on the CrackBerry forums suggest that the company is planning to update BBM to include video calling and screen-sharing capabilities. A second slide highlights a task manager application called BlackBerry Remember, which is believed to be the replacement for RIM’s native Tasks app. Additional slides from the presentation can be viewed below.
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Publisher Bonnier, Flingo partner to make Smart TV Apps

 Bonnier, the publisher of magazines like Savuer and Popular Science, and Flingo, the largest publisher of apps for Smart TVs, have partnered to create a series of apps extending Bonnier's titles onto Internet-enabled TV sets and set-tops boxes like the Roku.
Together, they will release a new app for each magazine, offering videos, images and archival content for fans. Savuer has a couple of web series, including "The Test Kitchen" which helps home chefs learn how to peel garlic or dice an onion. Those videos, currently on Saveur's website YouTube channel, will resurface in the apps, which will be distributed for free in app markets thanks to advertising and sponsors.
Though smart TVs remain a small segment of the TV market, Bonnier believes it is an ideal platform for leading media companies to extend their brand.
"This is about going after new technologies and being at the forefront," Sean Holzman, Bonnier's Chief Brand Development Officer, told TheWrap. "We don't look closely at what other publishing companies may be doing. Flingo has a universe of 15 million devices and that should double in 2013."
The emphasis will be on video since research demonstrates that it remains the top activity, even more than gaming.
Ashwin Navin, CEO of Flingo, said that while many media companies are putting secondary titles on Internet-enabled TVs, Bonnier is using its top titles.
"Major media companies aren't putting their crown jewels on smart TVs," Navin told TheWrap. He added that when they measure how long users spend online with certain brands, websites register just a few minutes.
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Facebook unveils new privacy controls

Facebook Inc began rolling out a variety of new privacy controls on Wednesday, the company's latest effort to address user concerns about who can see their personal information on the world's largest social network.
New tools introduced on Wednesday will make it easier for Facebook's members to quickly determine who can view the photos, comments and other information about them that appears on different parts of the website, and to request that any objectionable photos they're featured in be removed.
A new privacy "shortcut" in the top-right hand corner of the website provides quick access to key controls such as allowing users to manage who can contact them and to block specific people.
The new controls are the latest changes to Facebook's privacy settings, which have been criticized in the past for being too confusing.
Facebook Director of Product Sam Lessin said the changes were designed to increase users' comfort level on the social network, which has roughly one billion users.
"When users don't understand the concepts and controls and hit surprises, they don't build the confidence they need," said Lessin.
Facebook, Google Inc and other online companies have faced increasing scrutiny and enforcement from privacy regulators as consumers entrust ever-increasing amounts of information about their personal lives to Web services.
In April, Facebook settled privacy charges with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission that it had deceived consumers and forced them to share more personal information than they intended. Under the settlement, Facebook is required to get user consent for certain changes to its privacy settings and is subject to 20 years of independent audits.
Facebook's Lessin said some users don't understand that the information they post on their Timeline profile page is not the only personal information about them that may be viewable by others. Improvements to Facebook's so-called Activity Log will make it easier for users to see at a glance all the information that involves them across the social network.
Facebook also said it is changing the way that third-party apps, such as games and music players, get permission to access user data. An app must now provide separate requests to create a personalized service based on a user's personal information and to post automated messages to the Facebook newsfeed on behalf of a user - previously users agreed to both conditions by approving a single request.
The revamped controls follow proposed changes that Facebook has made to its privacy policy and terms of service. The changes would allow Facebook to integrate user data with that of its recently acquired photo-sharing app Instagram, and would loosen restrictions on how members of the social network can contact other members using the Facebook email system.
Nearly 600,000 Facebook users voted to reject the proposed changes, but the votes fell far short of the roughly 300 million needed for the vote to be binding, under Facebook's existing rules. The proposed changes also would eliminate any such future votes by Facebook users.
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